Unit 9 - Get Ready for Some Wild Weather（准备应对厄尔尼诺）
Get Ready for Some Wild Weather
Per Ola, Emily D'aulaire
In March of 1997, Stephen Zebiak stared at his computer screen in alarm. The veteran climate researcher saw indications of a worldwide weather event that, over the years, has been blamed for droughts and floods, famine, fires and thousands of deaths. Called El Nino, it is the most disruptive climatic phenomenon on the planet.
Zebiak and Mark Cane, research scientists at Columbia University, had developed a computerized forecast model that correctly predicted El Nino's occurrences in 1982, '86 and '91, and it had pointed to a recurrence in '98. But the data appearing on Zebiak's screen from satellite and sea-surface monitors across the Pacific were unmistakable: El Nino was already beginning. A huge pool of warm water — larger than the United States and some 600 feet deep — was moving slowly but surely eastward toward South America.
In June the equatorial trade winds reversed direction from westward to eastward. By September, waters off Northern California were roughly 17 degrees warmer than normal. Off the Washington coast, stunned fishermen caught tropical fish that seldom stray that far north. Storms were flooding central Chile, and heavier-than-normal snowfalls in the Andes trapped hundreds in the bitter cold. And all of this only foretold of even more devastating weather for the fall and winter.
El Nino means "little boy" in Spanish; when capitalized, it refers to the Christ child. This innocent-sounding name originated in the 19th century, when Peruvian sailors noticed that every few years around Christmastime, waters near the coasts warmed up and the current shifted southward. But this "little boy" plays havoc around the globe.
El Nino occurs when weather patterns in the tropical Pacific shift violently. Normally, strong westward-blowing trade winds off South America push surface water toward Asia. Just as blowing on hot coffee pushes the liquid up against the opposite side of the cup, the trade winds pile warm water against the coastlines of Australia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Above the warm water, moist air rises, lowering atmospheric pressure and triggering the tropical showers that nourish the rain forests of Asia. Meanwhile high-altitude winds travel back toward South America. There, the cooled air sinks, raising atmospheric pressure and suppressing rain along most of the Pacific coast, making it one of the driest regions in the world.
But with El Nino, the pattern reverses. Atmospheric pressure in the Western Pacific rises, setting the stage for drought from Australia to India. The trade winds decrease, or in extreme years reverse to blow eastward. As a result, a huge mass of warm water flows back toward South America, causing storms from Chile to California. Meanwhile, over the Pacific, ten-mile-high storm clouds further heat the atmosphere, fueling a stronger-than-normal jet stream, which often splits in two. One branch moves north, warming the Pacific Northwest, central Canada and Alaska. Another branch surges south, producing heavy rains in the U.S. Gulf States and Southwest.
El Nino's vast impact on humans has often been catastrophic. The El Nino of 1982-83 inflicted $13 billion in damage and claimed some 2,000 lives. In Australia day turned to night when a dust storm blanketed Melbourne; brush fires raged in its wake. In place of its normal monsoon, Southern India got dried-up crops and the threat of mass starvation. At the same time, violent rainstorms devastated the Western Hemisphere: Peru's fishing industry — once one of the richest in the world — was wiped out, and seaside towns were washed into the Pacific.
Is there a good side to El Nino? There can be. Zebiak notes that the number of tropical hurricanes in the Atlantic is reduced during an El Nino year. One theory is that winds created by El Nino shear off the tops of Atlantic hurricanes, aborting them before they reach full force. And a team of scientists in Israel who study tree rings and satellite cloud pictures concluded that El Nino may bring precious moisture to the thirsty Middle East. "It is perhaps fitting that El Nino — the Christ child — should have a link to the Holy Land," notes scientist Dan Yakir.
This year, scientists around the world are keeping a sharp eye on El Nino. They know that the greater the temperature rise in Pacific waters off South America, the more powerful the El Nino. And this year's waters have heated up unusually fast. Climate-change researcher Michael Ghil of UCLA expects the impact to be "substantial." Ants Leetmaa, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in Maryland, agrees: This El Nino is shaping up as one of the most powerful ever.
According to forecasters, hardest hit in this country will likely be California, where heavy rains can send houses sliding down muddy slopes onto washed-out coastal highways. The nation's southern states — from California to Florida — can expect cooler and wetter weather than normal this winter and spring, with extensive storms in some areas. The Northwest should be warmer and drier than normal.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected in much of South America. The Asian monsoon rains could fail, resulting in food shortages in India. In Australia, where El Nino typically means drought, strict water conservation is already under way.
El Nino's effects won't just be climatic, of course — the global economy is sure to suffer as well. Drought in Brazil and flooding in Colombia may result in higher prices for coffee and other crops. And fishing industries from Ecuador to California are already being hurt.
Clearly, the more accurately scientists can forecast El Nino, the more people everywhere can prepare. Insurance companies, farmers, power and irrigation companies, public-safety agencies and even tourist boards could benefit from knowing in advance when El Nino will strike.
"Reliable forecasting is still in its infancy," states Mark Cane. Someday, perhaps, scientists will be able to predict exactly how El Nino will behave. But for now, batten down the hatches and get ready for some wild weather!
New Words
indication
n. a sign or suggestion 迹象，暗示
indicative
a. (of) showing or suggesting 指示的；标示的；暗示的
disruptive
a. causing disorder or trouble 破坏性的；制造混乱的；捣乱的
climatic
a. of or connected with the climate 气候的
occurrence
n. 1. the fact that sth. happens or is present in a particular situation 出现，发生
2. an event 发生的事情；事件
recurrence
n. the fact or process of happening again 重新出现；复发
recur
v. (esp. of sth. unpleasant or unwelcome) happen or appear again, or more than once （尤指不好的事）一再发生；重现
data
n. (sing. datum) facts, information 资料；数据
sea-surface
n. the surface of the sea 海面
equatorial
a. 赤道的；赤道附近的
equator
n. 赤道
trade wind
a tropical wind that blows almost continually towards the equator from the northeast and southeast 信风，贸易风
stray
vi. move away from a group, path or place, etc., usually with no particular purpose or destination 离群；走失；走离
a. 1. lost; wandering away from home 走失的；离群的
2. scattered; met by chance 零星的；偶尔遇到的
foretell
vt. tell (what will happen in the future) 预言；预示
devastating
a. causing great destruction 破坏性极大的；毁灭性的
capitalize,-ise
vt. 将…大写
innocent
a. 天真无邪的，纯真的；无害的；无罪的，无辜的
originate
vi. start, occur for the first time 发源；始于
violently
ad. with a lot of force 剧烈地；强烈地
westward-blowing
a. blowing towards the west 向西刮的
coastline
n. the shape (outline) of a coast 海岸线
moist
a. slightly wet 潮湿的
atmospheric
a. 大气的；大气层的
nourish
vt. cause to stay alive or grow by giving food, water, etc. 滋养；养育
altitude
n. 1. height, as of a mountain above sea level 高度；海拔
2. (often pl.)a high place or area ［常复数］高处；高地
suppress
vt. prevent from appearing 阻止；压制
region
n. 1. a large area of land 地区；地带
2. 行政区
decrease
v. (cause to) become less in size, number, strength, amount, or quality （使）减少；（使）减弱；（使）减轻
n. the act or action of decreasing; the state of being decreased 减少；减弱
jet stream
［气］急流
northwest
n. 西北；（N-）（一国或一地区的）西北部
a. 位于西北的；朝西北部的；来自西北的
ad. 在西北；向西北；从西北
gulf
n. 海湾
southwest
n. 西南；（S-）（一国或一地区）西南部
a. 位于西南的；向西南的；来自西南的
ad. 在西南；向西南；从西南
inflict
vt. cause (damage, suffering, etc.) 导致（破坏、痛苦等）
dust storm
［气］（干燥地区的）尘暴，沙暴
brush fire
bush fire 灌丛火
rage
vi. 1. (of fires, storms, battles, etc.) continue violently （烈火）熊熊燃烧；（浪）汹涌；激战
2. feel or express violent anger 发怒；怒斥
monsoon
n. 季风
violent
a. 1. uncontrollably fierce or dangerous in action 暴力的；强暴的
2. acting with or using great damaging force 猛烈的，剧烈的
hemisphere
n. a half of the earth 半球
seaside
n. & a. (of) an area or town by the sea 海边（的），海滨（的）
hurricane
n. 飓风；暴风雨
shear
v. 1. (off) 剪断
2. cut off wool (from sheep) 剪（羊毛等）
abort
v. 1. end ( a job, plan, etc.) before the expected time because of some trouble （因中途遭遇困难而）中止（工作、计划等）
2. (of a job, plan, etc.) end in this way （工作，计划等）中止；未完成
3. （使）流产，坠胎
tree rings
（树木的）年轮
precious
a. valuable and useful 宝贵的；珍贵的
moisture
n. 1. 水分；降雨量
2. 水气；湿气
fitting
a. suitable, appropriate, right for the purpose or occasion 适当的，恰当的
link
n. 1. relationship 联系，关系
2. a physical connection between two places or objects 连接
v. join or connect 连接；联系
holy
a. of God or religion; sacred 上帝的；宗教的；神圣的
oceanic
a. 1. 海洋的，大洋的
2. 在海洋中生活的；产于海洋的
forecaster
n. 天气预报员
muddy
a. full of or covered with mud 泥泞的
washed-out
a. destroyed or made useless by the force of water 被洪水冲蚀的；受到侵蚀的
coastal
n. of or related to the coast 海岸的；沿岸的
extensive
a. 1. great in effect 巨大的；严重的
2. widespread, covering a large area 广阔的；广大的
conservation
n. the preservation of natural things to prevent them from being spoiled or destroyed （对自然资源的）保护；保存
insurance
n. 1. agreement by contract to pay money in case of misfortune 保险
2. 保险业
insure
v. to protect... by insurance 给…保险，为…提供保证
irrigation
n. the supply of water (to dry land) 灌溉
agency
n. 1. 公众服务机构
2. a business or organisation providing a specified service 代理行；经销处
tourist
n. a person travelling for pleasure 旅游者
a. 旅游的
batten
vt. (down) (on ships) fasten with boards of wood 用板条固定
hatch
n. （船的）舱口（盖）；（飞机的）舱口
vt. 1. cause (an egg) to break, letting the young bird out 孵出
2. (up) make up (a plan or idea) 筹划；策划
vi. (of an egg) break, letting the young bird out; (of a young bird) break through an egg （蛋等）孵化；（小鸡等）出壳
Phrases and Expressions
point to
suggest that (sth.) is likely; indicate 说明（某事）很可能；表明
warm up
(cause to) get warmer （使）变暖
refer to
relate to; mention or speak of 与…有关；提到；谈到
set the stage for
prepare for; make possible 为…做好准备；使成为可能
in sth.'s wake / in the wake of sth.
coming after or following sth.; as a result of sth. 随着…而来；作为…的结果
wipe out
destroy completely 彻底摧毁；消灭
be washed into
be carried somewhere by water 被冲入某处
shear off
cut off 剪断；切掉
keep a sharp eye on
watch closely 密切注意
heat up
make or become hot or warm （使）变热
shape up
develop; assume a shape 发展；成形，形成
under way
in progress 在进行中；在前进中
benefit from
receive benefit or gain from 得益于
in advance
before, ahead of time 事先，事前
batten down the hatches （在暴风雨未来到前）封舱；（喻）未雨绸缪，做好准备
Proper Names
Per Ola
珀·奥拉
Emily D'aulaire
埃米莉·多莱尔
Stephen Zebiak
斯蒂芬·泽比埃克
El Nino
“厄尔尼诺”现象（指严重影响全球气候的太平洋热带海域的大风及海水的大规模移动）
Mark Cane
马克·凯恩
Columbia University
（美国）哥伦比亚大学
Chile
智利（南美洲西南部国家）
the Andes
安第斯山脉（南美洲西部）
Christ
基督
Peruvian
秘鲁的；秘鲁人
Christmastime
圣诞节时期
Indonesia
印度尼西亚（东南亚岛国）
the Philippines
菲律宾（东南亚岛国）；菲律宾群岛
Alaska
阿拉斯加州（美国州名）
the Gulf States
美国濒墨西哥湾诸州（指佛罗里达、亚拉巴马、密西西比、路易斯安那和得克萨斯等五个州）
Melbourne
墨尔本（澳大利亚东南部港市）
Peru
秘鲁（南美洲西部国家）
Israel
以色列（全称以色列国，在西南亚巴勒斯坦地区）
the Holy Land
（基督教）圣地；宗教圣地
Dan Yakir
丹·亚克
Michael Ghil
迈克尔·吉尔
Ants Leetmaa
安茨·利特马
Maryland
马里兰州（美国州名）
Florida
佛罗里达州（美国州名）
Brazil
巴西（南美洲国家）
Colombia
哥伦比亚（南美洲西北部国家）
Ecuador
厄瓜多尔（南美洲西北部国家）
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