Financial Analysis Techniques

• 24.1 财务分析工具及比率分析
• • 24.1.1 同比分析法（Common-Size Analysis）
  • • 一、同比资产负债表（Common-Size Analysis of the Balance Sheet）
    • 二、同比损益表（Common-Size Analysis of Income Statement）
    • 三、同比现金流量表（Common-Size Analysis of the Cash Flow Statement）
    • 四、A horizontal common-size balance sheet or income statement
    • 五、Graphical Analysis
    • 六、Regression Analysis
  • 24.1.2 常用比率
  • • 一、流动性比率（Liquidity Ratio）
    • 二、偿债能力比率（Solvency Ratio）
    • 三、盈利能力比率（Profitability Ratio）
    • 四、活动比率（Activity Ratio）
    • 五、Valuation ratios
  • 24.1.3 Equity analysis
  • 24.1.4 杜邦分析法（DuPont analysis）
  • • 一、杜邦三步法（Dupont Three-Steps）
    • 二、杜邦五步法（Dupont Five-Steps）
• 24.2 财务分析、信用分析及企业分部报告
• • 24.2.1 股权投资分析（Equity Analysis）
  • • 一、分红相关比率
    • 二、可持续增长率（Sustainable Growth Rate）
  • 24.2.2 信用分析（Credit Analysis）
  • 24.2.3 企业分部门报告（Segment Reporting）
  • 24.2.4 估值模型与预测（Model Building and Forecasting）

24.1 财务分析工具及比率分析

24.1.1 同比分析法（Common-Size Analysis）

一、同比资产负债表（Common-Size Analysis of the Balance Sheet）

A vertical common-size balance sheet expresses all balance sheet accounts as a percentage of total assets.
v e r t i c a l   c o m m o n − s i z e   b a l a n c e   s h e e t   r a t i o s = b a l a n c e   s h e e t   a c c o u n t t o t a l   a s s e t s vertical \ common-size \ balance \ sheet \ ratios = \frac{balance \ sheet \ account}{total \ assets} vertical common−size balance sheet ratios=total assetsbalance sheet account​

二、同比损益表（Common-Size Analysis of Income Statement）

A vertical common-size income statement expresses all income statement items as a percentage of sales.
v e r t i c a l   c o m m o n − s i z e   i n c o m e   s t a t e m e n t   r a t i o s = i n c o m e   s t a t e m e n t   a c c o u n t s a l e s vertical \ common-size \ income \ statement \ ratios = \frac{income \ statement \ account}{sales} vertical common−size income statement ratios=salesincome statement account​

三、同比现金流量表（Common-Size Analysis of the Cash Flow Statement）

A vertical common-size cash flow statement expresses all cash flow statement items as a percentage of sales or total cash flow(two methods)

四、A horizontal common-size balance sheet or income statement

	20X4	20X5	20X6
Inventory	1.0	1.1	1.4
Cash and marketable securities	1.0	1.3	1.2
long term debt	1.0	1.6	1.8
PP&E(net of depreciation)	1.0	0.9	0.8

五、Graphical Analysis

• A stacked column graph (also called a stacked bar graph) shows the changes In items from year to year in graphical form
• A line graph

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六、Regression Analysis

• Facilitates identification of items or ratios that are not behaving as expected

  • relationship between sales and GDP

  • relationship between sales and inventory

24.1.2 常用比率

Ratio analysis are useful tools for expressing relationships among data that can be used for internal comparisons and comparisons across firms.

• Usage

  • Project future earnings and cash flow.
  • Evaluate a firm’s flexibility (the ability to grow and meet obligations even when unexpected circumstances arise).
  • Assess management’s performance.
  • Evaluate changes in the firm and industry over time.
  • Compare the firm with industry competitors.

• Limitations

  • Financial ratios are not useful when viewed in isolation.
  • Comparisons with other companies are made more difficult by different accounting treatments.
  • It is difficult to find comparable industry ratios when analyzing companies that operate in multiple industries.
  • Conclusions cannot be made by calculating a single ratio. All ratios must be viewed relative to one another.
  • Determining the target or comparison value for a ratio is difficult, requiring some range of acceptable values.

一、流动性比率（Liquidity Ratio）

The ability to pay short-term obligations as they come due.

• 流动比率（Current ratio）
  C u r r e n t   r a t i o = c u r r e n t   a s s e t s c u r r e n t   l i a b i l i t i e s Current \ ratio = \frac{current \ assets}{current \ liabilities} Current ratio=current liabilitiescurrent assets​

  • The higher the current ratio, the more likely it is that the company will be able to pay its short-term bills.
  • A current ratio<1, a negative working capital, is probably facing a liquidity crisis.

• 速动比率（Quick ratio）
  q u i c k   r a t i o = c a s h + m a r k e t a b l e   s e c u r i t i e s + r e c e i v a b l e s c u r r e n t   l i a b i l i t i e s quick \ ratio = \frac{cash + marketable \ securities + receivables}{current \ liabilities} quick ratio=current liabilitiescash+marketable securities+receivables​

  • The higher the quick ratio, the more likely it is that the company will be able to pay its short-term bills.

• 现金比率（Cash ratio）
  c a s h   r a t i o = c a s h + m a r k e t a b l e   s e c u r i t i e s c u r r e n t   l i a b i l i t i e s cash \ ratio = \frac{cash + marketable \ securities}{current \ liabilities} cash ratio=current liabilitiescash+marketable securities​

  • The higher the cash ratio, the more likely it is that the company will be able to pay its shortterm bills

• 防御区间比率（Defensive interval）
  d e f e n s i v e   i n t   e r v a l = c a s h + m a r k e t a b l e   s e c u r i t i e s + r e c e i v a b l e s 每 日 经 营 预 计 开 支 ( a v e r a g e   d a i l y   e x p e n d i t u r e s ) defensive \ int \ erval = \frac{cash + marketable \ securities + receivables}{每日经营预计开支(average \ daily \ expenditures)} defensive int erval=每日经营预计开支(average daily expenditures)cash+marketable securities+receivables​

  • Expenditures include cash expenses for costs of goods, SG&A, and research and development

• 经营周期（Operating cycle）
  o p e r a t i n g   c y c l e = D a y s   o f   i n v e n t o r y   o n   h a n d + D a y s   o f   s a l e s   o u t s t a n d i n g   ( D O H + D S O ) operating \ cycle = Days \ of \ inventory \ on \ hand + Days \ of \ sales \ outstanding \ (DOH + DSO) operating cycle=Days of inventory on hand+Days of sales outstanding (DOH+DSO)

• 现金循环周期（Cash conversion cycle）
  C a s h   c o n v e r s i o n   c y c l e = ( d a y s   s a l e s   o u t s t a n d i n g ) + ( d a y s   o f   i n v e n t o r y   o n   h a n d ) − ( n u m b e r   o f   d a y s   o f   p a y a b l e s ) Cash \ conversion \ cycle = (days \ sales \ outstanding) + (days \ of \ inventory \ on \ hand) - (number \ of \ days \ of \ payables) Cash conversion cycle=(days sales outstanding)+(days of inventory on hand)−(number of days of payables)

  • The length of time it takes to turn the firm’s cash investment in inventory back into cash.
  • A conversion cycle that is too high implies that the company has an excessive amount of capital investment in the sales process.

二、偿债能力比率（Solvency Ratio）

Solvency ratios measure a firm’s financial leverage and ability to meet its long-term obligations.

• 债务权益比率（Debt-to-equity）
  D e b t − t o − e q u i t y = t o t a l   d e b t t o t a l   s h a r e h o l d e r s ′   e q u i t y Debt-to-equity = \frac{total \ debt}{total \ shareholders' \ equity} Debt−to−equity=total shareholders′ equitytotal debt​

  • T o t a l   d e b t = l o n g − t e r m   d e b t + i n t e r e s t − b e a r i n g   s h o r t − t e r m   d e b t Total \ debt= long-term \ debt + interest-bearing \ short-term \ debt Total debt=long−term debt+interest−bearing short−term debt

• 债务资本比率（Debt-to-capital）
  D e b t − t o − c a p i t a l = t o t a l   d e b t t o t a l   d e b t + t o t a l   s h a r e h o l d e r s ′   e q u i t y Debt-to-capital=\frac{total \ debt}{total \ debt + total \ shareholders' \ equity} Debt−to−capital=total debt+total shareholders′ equitytotal debt​

• 债务资产比率（Debt-to-asset）
  D e b t − t o − a s s e t s = t o t a l   d e b t t o t a l   a s s e t s Debt-to-assets = \frac{total \ debt}{total \ assets} Debt−to−assets=total assetstotal debt​

• 财务杠杆比率（Financial leverage ratio）
  F i n a n c i a l   l e v e r a g e = a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s a v e r a g e   t o t a l   e q u i t y Financial \ leverage = \frac{average \ total \ assets}{average \ total \ equity} Financial leverage=average total equityaverage total assets​

  • A v e r a g e = b e g i n n i n g + e n d i n g 2 Average= \frac{beginning + ending}{2} Average=2beginning+ending​
  • Greater use of debt financing increases financial leverage, risk to equity holders and bondholders alike.

• 利息保障倍数（Interest coverage）
  I n t e r e s t   c o v e r a g e = e a r n i n g s   b e f o r e   i n t e r e s t   a n d   t a x s i n t e r e s t   p a y m e n t s Interest \ coverage = \frac{earnings \ before \ interest \ and \ taxs}{interest \ payments} Interest coverage=interest paymentsearnings before interest and taxs​

  • The lower this ratio, the more likely that the firm cannot pay its debt.

• 固定费用偿付比率（Fixed charge coverage）
  F i x e d   c h a r g e   c o v e r a g e = e a r n i n g s   b e f o r e   i n t e r e s t   a n d   t a x s + 租 赁 费 用 ( l e a s e   p a y m e n t s ) i n t e r e s t   p a y m e n t s + l e a s e   p a y m e n t s Fixed \ charge \ coverage = \frac{earnings \ before \ interest \ and \ taxs + 租赁费用(lease \ payments)}{interest \ payments + lease \ payments} Fixed charge coverage=interest payments+lease paymentsearnings before interest and taxs+租赁费用(lease payments)​

  • Significant lease obligations will reduce this ratio significantly compared to the interest coverage ratio.
  • Fixed charge coverage is the more meaningful measure for companies that lease a large portion of their assets, such as some airlines.

三、盈利能力比率（Profitability Ratio）

How well the company generates operating profits and net profits from its sales.

• 净利润率（Net profit margin）
  N e t   p r o f i t   m a r g i n = n e t   i n c o m e r e v e n u e Net \ profit \ margin = \frac{net \ income}{revenue} Net profit margin=revenuenet income​

  • If this ratio is low, it may be dangerous.
  • The net profit margin should be based on net income from continuing operations.
  • Below-the-line items such as discontinued operations will not affect the company in the future.

• 毛利润率（Gross profit margin）
  G r o s s   p r o f i t   m a r g i n = g r o s s   p r o f i t r e v e n u e Gross \ profit \ margin = \frac{gross \ profit}{revenue} Gross profit margin=revenuegross profit​

  • If this ratio is low, it may be dangerous.
  • Gross profit can be increased by raising prices or reducing costs.
  • The ability to raise prices may be limited by competition.

• 经营利润率（Operating profit margin）
  O p e r a t i n g   p r o f i t   m a r g i n = O p e r a t i n g   i n c o m e r e v e n u e   o r   E B I T r e v e n u e Operating \ profit \ margin = \frac{Operating \ income}{revenue} \ or \ \frac{EBIT}{revenue} Operating profit margin=revenueOperating income​ or revenueEBIT​

  • If this ratio is low, it may be dangerous.
  • Analysts must be consistent in his calculation method and know how published ratios are calculated.
  • Some analysts prefer to calculate the operating profit margin by adding back depreciation and any amortization expense to arrive at earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).

• 税前利润率（Pretax margin）
  P r e t a x   m a r g i n = E B T r e v e n u e Pretax \ margin = \frac{EBT}{revenue} Pretax margin=revenueEBT​

• 资产回报率（Return on assets）
  R e t u r n   o n   a s s e t s ( R O A ) = n e t   i n c o m e a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s R e t u r n   o n   a s s e t s ( R O A ) = n e t   i n c o m e + i n t e r e s t   e x p e n s e ( 1 − t a x   r a t e ) a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s Return \ on \ assets(ROA) = \frac{net \ income}{average \ total \ assets} \\ Return \ on \ assets(ROA) = \frac{net \ income + interest \ expense(1- tax \ rate)}{average \ total \ assets} Return on assets(ROA)=average total assetsnet income​Return on assets(ROA)=average total assetsnet income+interest expense(1−tax rate)​

• 资本回报率（Return on total capital）
  R e t u r n   o n   t o t a l   c a p i t a l = E B I T a v e r a g e   t o t a l   c a p i t a l Return \ on \ total \ capital = \frac{EBIT}{average \ total \ capital} Return on total capital=average total capitalEBIT​

• 股东权益回报率或净资产回报率（Return on equity，ROE）
  R e t u r n   o n   e q u i t y = n e t   i n c o m e a v e r a g e   t o t a l   e q u i t y Return \ on \ equity = \frac{net \ income}{average \ total \ equity} Return on equity=average total equitynet income​

四、活动比率（Activity Ratio）

Measure how efficiently the firm is managing its assets.

• Account receivable
  应 收 账 款 周 转 率 ( r e c e i v a b l e s   t u r n o v e r ) = a n n u a l   s a l e s a v e r a g e   r e c e i v a b l e s 应 收 账 款 周 转 天 数 ( d a y s   o f   s a l e s   o u t s t a n d i n g , D S O ) = 365 r e c e i v a b l e s   t u r n o v e r 应收账款周转率(receivables \ turnover) = \frac{annual \ sales}{average \ receivables} \\ 应收账款周转天数(days \ of \ sales \ outstanding, DSO) = \frac{365}{receivables \ turnover} 应收账款周转率(receivables turnover)=average receivablesannual sales​应收账款周转天数(days of sales outstanding,DSO)=receivables turnover365​

  • It is desirable to have a collection period (and receivables turnover) close to the industry norm.
  • A collection period that is too high might mean that customers are too slow in paying their bills, which means too much capital is tied up in assets.
  • A collection period that is too low might indicate that the firm’s credit policy is too rigorous, which might be hampering sales.

• Inventory
  存 货 周 转 率 ( I n v e n t o r y   t u r n o v e r ) = c o s t   o f   g o o d s   s o l d a v e r a g e   i n v e n t o r y 存 货 周 转 天 数 ( d a y s   o f   i n v e n t o r y   o n   h a n d , D O H ) = 365 I n v e n t o r y   t u r n o v e r 存货周转率(Inventory \ turnover) = \frac{cost \ of \ goods \ sold}{average \ inventory} \\ 存货周转天数(days \ of \ inventory \ on \ hand, DOH) = \frac{365}{Inventory \ turnover} 存货周转率(Inventory turnover)=average inventorycost of goods sold​存货周转天数(days of inventory on hand,DOH)=Inventory turnover365​

  • It is considered desirable to have days of inventory on hand (and inventory turnover) close to the industry norm.
  • A processing period is too high
    • Too much capital is tied up in inventory.
    • The inventory is obsolete.
  • A processing period is too low
    • Firm has inadequate stock on hand, which could hurt sales.

• Payable
  应 付 账 款 周 转 率 ( P a y a b l e   t u r n o v e r ) = p u r c h a s e s a v e r a g e   t r a d e   p a y a b l e s 应 付 账 款 周 转 天 数 ( n u m b e r   o f   d a y s   p a y a b l e s ) = 365 P a y a b l e   t u r n o v e r   r a t i o 应付账款周转率(Payable \ turnover) = \frac{purchases}{average \ trade \ payables} \\ 应付账款周转天数(number \ of \ days \ payables) = \frac{365}{Payable \ turnover \ ratio} 应付账款周转率(Payable turnover)=average trade payablespurchases​应付账款周转天数(number of days payables)=Payable turnover ratio365​

  • The average amount of time it takes the company to pay its bills.

• Total assets
  总 资 产 周 转 率 ( T o t a l   a s s e t s   t u r n o v e r ) = r e v e n u e a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s 总资产周转率(Total \ assets \ turnover) = \frac{revenue}{average \ total \ assets} 总资产周转率(Total assets turnover)=average total assetsrevenue​

  • Different types of industries might have considerably different turnover ratios.
    • Manufacturing businesses that are capital-intensive might have asset turnover ratios near one.
    • Retail businesses might have turnover ratios near 10.
  • it is desirable for the total asset turnover ratio to be close to the industry norm.
    • Low asset turnover ratios might mean that the company has too much capital tied up in its asset base.
    • A turnover ratio that is too high might imply that the firm has too few assets for potential sales.

• 营运资本周转率（Working capital turnover）
  w o r k i n g   c a p i t a l   t u r n o v e r = s a l e s A v e r a g e   w o r k i n g   c a p i t a l working \ capital \ turnover = \frac{sales}{Average \ working \ capital} working capital turnover=Average working capitalsales​

• 固定资产周转率（Fixed asset turnover）
  f i x e d   a s s e t   t u r n o v e r = R e v e n u e A v e r a g e   f i x e d   a s s e t fixed \ asset \ turnover = \frac{Revenue}{Average \ fixed \ asset} fixed asset turnover=Average fixed assetRevenue​

五、Valuation ratios

Comparing the relative valuation of companies. Such as sales per share, earning per share, and price to cash flow per share.

24.1.3 Equity analysis

• Dividend payout ratio
  D i v i d e n d   p a y o u t   r a t i o = D i v i d e n d   d e c l a r e d n e t   i n c o m e   a v a i l a b l e   t o   c o m m o n Dividend \ payout \ ratio = \frac{Dividend \ declared}{net \ income \ available \ to \ common} Dividend payout ratio=net income available to commonDividend declared​

• Retention rate
  R e t e n t i o n   r a t e = n e t   i n c o m e   a v a i l a b l e   t o   c o m m o n − d i v i d e n d s   d e c l a r e d n e t i n c o m e a v a i l a b l e t o c o m m o n = 1 − d i v i d e n d   p a y o u t   r a t i o Retention \ rate = \frac{net \ income \ available \ to \ common - dividends \ declared}{net income available to common} = 1 - dividend \ payout\ ratio Retention rate=netincomeavailabletocommonnet income available to common−dividends declared​=1−dividend payout ratio

• Sustainable growth rate

  • g = R O E ∗ r e t e n t i o n   r a t i o g=ROE*retention \ ratio g=ROE∗retention ratio

24.1.4 杜邦分析法（DuPont analysis）

一、杜邦三步法（Dupont Three-Steps）

R e t u r n   o n   e q u i t y = n e t   i n c o m e r e v e n u e ∗ r e v e n u e a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s ∗ a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s a v e r a g e   e q u i t y R O E = s a l e s   p r o f i t   m a r g i n ∗ t o t a l   a s s e t   t u r n o v e r ∗ l e v e r a g e Return \ on \ equity = \frac{net \ income}{revenue} * \frac{revenue}{average \ total \ assets} * \frac{average \ total \ assets}{average \ equity} \\ ROE = sales \ profit \ margin * total \ asset \ turnover * leverage Return on equity=revenuenet income​∗average total assetsrevenue​∗average equityaverage total assets​ROE=sales profit margin∗total asset turnover∗leverage

If ROE is relatively low, The company has a poor profit margin. The company has poor asset turnover. The firm has too little leverage.

二、杜邦五步法（Dupont Five-Steps）

n e t   i n c o m e a v e r a g e   s h a r e h o l d e r s ′   e q u i t y = n e t   i n c o m e E B T ∗ E B T E B I T ∗ E B I T r e v e n u e ∗ r e v e n u e a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s ∗ a v e r a g e   t o t a l   a s s e t s a v e r a g e   s h a r e h o l d e r s ′   e q u i t y R O E = 税 务 负 担 比 率 ( t a x   b u r d e n ) ∗ 利 息 负 担 比 率 ( i n t e r e s t   b u r d e n ) ∗ E B I T   m a r g i n ∗ t o t a l   a s s e t   t u r n o v e r ∗ l e v e r a g e \frac{net \ income}{average \ shareholders' \ equity} = \frac{net \ income}{EBT} * \frac{EBT}{EBIT} * \frac{EBIT}{revenue} * \frac{revenue}{average \ total \ assets} * \frac{average \ total \ assets}{average \ shareholders' \ equity} \\ ROE = 税务负担比率(tax \ burden) * 利息负担比率(interest \ burden) * EBIT \ margin * total \ asset \ turnover * leverage average shareholders′ equitynet income​=EBTnet income​∗EBITEBT​∗revenueEBIT​∗average total assetsrevenue​∗average shareholders′ equityaverage total assets​ROE=税务负担比率(tax burden)∗利息负担比率(interest burden)∗EBIT margin∗total asset turnover∗leverage

24.2 财务分析、信用分析及企业分部报告

24.2.1 股权投资分析（Equity Analysis）

一、分红相关比率

1. 每股分红（Dividend per Share）

   这个指标衡量的是企业的平均每股分红，公式中分母是加权平均的市场流通普通股股数，分子即公司宣布的分红（dividend declared）。
   D i v i d e n d   p e r   s h a r e ( D P S ) = D i v i d e n d   d e c l a r e d / N u m b e r   o f   c o m m o n   s h a r e s Dividend \ per \ share(DPS) = Dividend \ declared / Number \ of \ common \ shares Dividend per share(DPS)=Dividend declared/Number of common shares

2. 股利发放比率（Dividend Payout Ratio）

   这个指标反映的是企业向股东分派的股息占公司当年盈利的百分比。
   D i v i d e n d   p a y o u t   r a t i o = D i v i d e n d / N e t   i n c o m e Dividend \ payout \ ratio = Dividend / Net \ income Dividend payout ratio=Dividend/Net income

3. 留存比率（Retention Ratio）

   留存比率反映的是公司利润中没有以股息形式发放给股东的比率，和股利发放率刚好成互补关系。
   R e t e n t i o n   r a t i o = 1 − D i v i d e n d   p a y o u t   r a t i o Retention \ ratio = 1 - Dividend \ payout \ ratio Retention ratio=1−Dividend payout ratio

二、可持续增长率（Sustainable Growth Rate）

企业的可持续增长率衡量的是企业在长期平衡增长阶段的增长速度。
S u s t a i n a b l e   g r o w t h   r a t e ( g ) = R O E ∗ R e t e n t i o n   t a t e = R O E ∗ ( 1 − D i v i d e n d   p a y o u t   r a t i o ) Sustainable \ growth \ rate(g) = ROE * Retention \ tate = ROE * (1 - Dividend \ payout \ ratio) Sustainable growth rate(g)=ROE∗Retention tate=ROE∗(1−Dividend payout ratio)

24.2.2 信用分析（Credit Analysis）

信用风险，是指债权人面临的债务人没有按照条约还款的风险。信用分析是指对这类违约风险进行评估分析的过程。

• Research on Ratios in Credit Analysis

  • Z – score
    Z = 1.2 A + 1.4 B + 3.3 C + 0.6 D + 1.0 E A = W C / T A B = R E / T A C = E B I T / T A D = M V   o f   E q u i t y / B V   o f   D e b t E = R e v e n u e / T A Z = 1.2 ∗ ( C u r r e n t   a s s e t s – C u r r e n t   l i a b i l i t i e s ) / T o t a l   a s s e t s + 1.4 ∗ ( R e t a i n e d   e a r n i n g s / T o t a l   a s s e t s ) + 3.3 ∗ ( E B I T / T o t a l   a s s e t s ) + 0.6 ∗ ( M a r k e t   v a l u e   o f   s t o c k / B o o k   v a l u e   o f   l i a b i l i t i e s ) + 1.0 ∗ ( S a l e s / T o t a l   a s s e t s ) l \begin{array}{l} Z = 1.2 A + 1.4 B + 3.3 C + 0.6 D + 1.0 E \\ A = WC / TA \\ B = RE / TA \\ C = EBIT / TA \\ D = MV \ of \ Equity / BV \ of \ Debt \\ E = Revenue / TA \\ Z = 1.2 * (Current \ assets – Current \ liabilities)/Total \ assets+ 1.4 * (Retained \ earnings/Total \ assets) + 3.3 * (EBIT/Total \ assets) + 0.6 * (Market \ value \ of \ stock/Book \ value \ of \ liabilities) + 1.0 * (Sales/Total \ assets) \end{array}{l} Z=1.2A+1.4B+3.3C+0.6D+1.0EA=WC/TAB=RE/TAC=EBIT/TAD=MV of Equity/BV of DebtE=Revenue/TAZ=1.2∗(Current assets–Current liabilities)/Total assets+1.4∗(Retained earnings/Total assets)+3.3∗(EBIT/Total assets)+0.6∗(Market value of stock/Book value of liabilities)+1.0∗(Sales/Total assets)​l

• Z-score of lower than 1.81 predicted failure and the model was able to accurately classify 95 percent of companies studied into a failure group and a non-failure group

24.2.3 企业分部门报告（Segment Reporting）

• Business segment or Geographic segment
  • A portion of a firm that has risk and return characteristics distinguishable from the rest of the firm and accounts for more than 10% of the firm’s sales net income or assets.
• Disclosure requirement
  • a measure of profit or loss
  • a measure of total assets and liabilities
  • interest revenue and interest expense
  • cost of property, plant, and equipment, and intangible assets acquired
  • depreciation and amortisation expense

部门比率	公式
部门利润率（Segment margin）	部门利润/部门收入
部门周转率（Segment turnover）	部门收入/部门资产
部门资产回报率（Segment ROA）	部门利润/部门资产
部门负债比率（Segment debt ratio）	部门负债/部门资产

24.2.4 估值模型与预测（Model Building and Forecasting）

为了预估一家企业未来的盈利能力，从而对公司股价有更好的判断，分析师会利用盈利模型（earnings model）做预测（forecasting）。在做预测的时候，分析师可以参考以下方法：

1. 敏感性分析法（sensitivity analysis），也叫作“what if”分析：表达的是某一个假设条件发生改变对公司的影响。
2. 情景分析（scenario analysis）：是指分析师在对公司股价做预测时，可以列举不同的情景来对公司做全面的分析，如供应短缺或者顾客减少时对公司的影响。
3. 模拟分析（simulation）：如果想要将敏感性分析与情景分析大量不同的概率情况做一次演算，必须通过计算机实现。这个过程叫模拟分析。